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Victor Mylle
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Reports/Thesis/sections/results/models/comparison.tex
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@@ -25,7 +25,7 @@ After training the different models and experimenting with various hyperparamete
& & & & & \\ & & & & & \\
& \acs{AQR} & Non-Linear & 32447.41 & 137.24 & 79.22 & 524,013 \\ & \acs{AQR} & Non-Linear & 32447.41 & 137.24 & 79.22 & 524,013 \\
& \acs{NAQR} & Non-Linear & 42588.16 & 157.20 & 73.75 & 673,760 \\ & \acs{NAQR} & Non-Linear & 42588.16 & 157.20 & 73.75 & 673,760 \\
& Diffusion & Non-Linear & 46448.90 & 164.50 & 81.06 & 14,229,344 \\ & Diffusion & Non-Linear & 47178.91 & 166.89 & 80.30 & 3,116,896 \\
& & & & & \\ & & & & & \\
& \acs{AQR} & GRU & 35238.98 & 141.02 & 80.92 & 11,843,565 \\ & \acs{AQR} & GRU & 35238.98 & 141.02 & 80.92 & 11,843,565 \\
& \acs{NAQR} & GRU & 40613.54 & 151.17 & 75.33 & 6,165,216 \\ & \acs{NAQR} & GRU & 40613.54 & 151.17 & 75.33 & 6,165,216 \\

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Reports/Thesis/sections/results/models/diffusion.tex
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@@ -35,7 +35,7 @@ Other hyperparameters that need to be chosen are the number of denoising steps,
\draw[-latex] (img2.south) |- (Middle) -| (img3.north); \draw[-latex] (img2.south) |- (Middle) -| (img3.north);
\end{tikzpicture} \end{tikzpicture}
\caption{Intermediate steps of the diffusion model for example 864 from the test set. The confidence intervals shown in the plots are made using 100 samples.} \caption{Intermediate steps of the diffusion model for example 864 from the test set. The confidence intervals shown in the plots are made using 100 samples.}
\label{fig:diffusion_intermediates} \label{fig:diffusion_intermediates}0
\end{figure} \end{figure}
In Figure \ref{fig:diffusion_intermediates}, multiple intermediate steps of the denoising process are shown as an example from the test set. The model starts with noisy full-day NRV samples which can be seen in the first steps. These noisy samples are then denoised in multiple steps until realistic samples are generated. This can be seen in the last image in the figure. It can be observed that the confidence intervals get more narrow over time as the noise is removed from the samples. In Figure \ref{fig:diffusion_intermediates}, multiple intermediate steps of the denoising process are shown as an example from the test set. The model starts with noisy full-day NRV samples which can be seen in the first steps. These noisy samples are then denoised in multiple steps until realistic samples are generated. This can be seen in the last image in the figure. It can be observed that the confidence intervals get more narrow over time as the noise is removed from the samples.
@@ -48,10 +48,21 @@ In Figure \ref{fig:diffusion_intermediates}, multiple intermediate steps of the
Features & Diffusion Steps & Layers & Hidden Size & MSE & MAE & CRPS \\ Features & Diffusion Steps & Layers & Hidden Size & MSE & MAE & CRPS \\
\midrule \midrule
NRV & & & & & & & \\ NRV & & & & & & & \\
& 300 & 2 & 256 & 57129.71 & 185.56 & 81.00 \\
& 300 & 2 & 512 & 48364.77 & 169.39 & 79.13 \\
& 300 & 2 & 1024 & 43540.50 & 159.17 & 78.27 \\
& 300 & 3 & 256 & 52741.73 & 177.09 & 79.55 \\
& 300 & 3 & 512 & 45048.05 & 161.89 & 78.46 \\
& 300 & 3 & 1024 & 42089.13 & 155.97 & 78.25 \\
& 300 & 4 & 256 & 56939.68 & 185.07 & 81.16 \\
& 300 & 4 & 512 & 46225.72 & 164.74 & 79.19 \\
& 300 & 4 & 1024 & 42984.02 & 157.54 & 77.92 \\ & 300 & 4 & 1024 & 42984.02 & 157.54 & 77.92 \\
\midrule \midrule
NRV + Load + Wind + PV + NP & & & & & & & \\ NRV + Load + Wind + PV + NP & & & & & & & \\
& 300 & 3 & 256 & & & \\ & 300 & 2 & 256 & 63337.36 & 196.21 & 84.29 \\
& 300 & 2 & 512 & 52745.92 & 177.16 & 81.57 \\
& 300 & 2 & 1024 & 47178.91 & 166.89 & 80.30 \\
& 300 & 3 & 256 & 66148.13 & 200.34 & 85.31 \\
& 300 & 3 & 512 & 53159.99 & 178.46 & 81.95 \\ & 300 & 3 & 512 & 53159.99 & 178.46 & 81.95 \\
& 300 & 3 & 1024 & 47815.13 & 167.22 & 81.16 \\ & 300 & 3 & 1024 & 47815.13 & 167.22 & 81.16 \\
& 300 & 3 & 2048 & 46448.90 & 164.50 & 81.06 \\ & 300 & 3 & 2048 & 46448.90 & 164.50 & 81.06 \\
@@ -61,8 +72,10 @@ In Figure \ref{fig:diffusion_intermediates}, multiple intermediate steps of the
\bottomrule \bottomrule
\end{tabular} \end{tabular}
\end{adjustbox} \end{adjustbox}
\caption{Non-linear quantile regression model results. All the models used a dropout of 0.2 .} \caption{Simple diffusion model results.}
\label{tab:diffusion_results} \label{tab:diffusion_results}
\end{table} \end{table}
In Table \ref{tab:diffusion_results}, the results of the experiments for the diffusion model can be seen. The diffusion model that was used is a simple implementation of the Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model (DDPM). The model itself exists of multiple linear layers with ReLU activation functions. The diffusion steps were set to 300 for the experiments. This number was determined by doing a few experiments with more and fewer steps. The model performance did not improve when more steps were used. This parameter could be further optimized together with the other parameters to find the best-performing model. This would take a lot of time and is not the goal of this thesis.
The first observation that can be made is the higher error metrics when more input features are used. This is counterintuitive because the model has more information to generate the samples. The reason for this behavior is not immediately clear. One reason could be that the model conditioning is not optimal. Now the input features are passed to every layer of the model together with the time series that needs to be denoised. The model could be improved by using a more advanced conditioning mechanism like classifier guidance and classifier-free guidance.

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Reports/Thesis/verslag.aux
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@@ -131,15 +131,15 @@
\ACRO{usage}{NRV=={9}} \ACRO{usage}{NRV=={9}}
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\contentsline {subsubsection}{\numberline {6.2.2}Non-Linear Model}{29}{subsubsection.6.2.2}% \contentsline {subsubsection}{\numberline {6.2.2}Non-Linear Model}{29}{subsubsection.6.2.2}%
\contentsline {subsubsection}{\numberline {6.2.3}GRU Model}{32}{subsubsection.6.2.3}% \contentsline {subsubsection}{\numberline {6.2.3}GRU Model}{32}{subsubsection.6.2.3}%
\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {6.3}Diffusion}{36}{subsection.6.3}% \contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {6.3}Diffusion}{36}{subsection.6.3}%
\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {6.4}Comparison}{38}{subsection.6.4}% \contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {6.4}Comparison}{39}{subsection.6.4}%
\contentsline {section}{\numberline {7}Policies for battery optimization}{41}{section.7}% \contentsline {section}{\numberline {7}Policies for battery optimization}{42}{section.7}%
\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {7.1}Baselines}{41}{subsection.7.1}% \contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {7.1}Baselines}{42}{subsection.7.1}%
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src/training_scripts/autoregressive_quantiles.py
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@@ -52,7 +52,7 @@ data_processor.set_full_day_skip(False)
#### Hyperparameters #### #### Hyperparameters ####
data_processor.set_output_size(1) data_processor.set_output_size(1)
inputDim = data_processor.get_input_size() inputDim = data_processor.get_input_size()
epochs = 300 epochs = 16
# add parameters to clearml # add parameters to clearml
quantiles = task.get_parameter("general/quantiles", cast=True) quantiles = task.get_parameter("general/quantiles", cast=True)

4
src/training_scripts/diffusion_training.py
View File

@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ from src.utils.clearml import ClearMLHelper
clearml_helper = ClearMLHelper(project_name="Thesis/NrvForecast") clearml_helper = ClearMLHelper(project_name="Thesis/NrvForecast")
task = clearml_helper.get_task( task = clearml_helper.get_task(
task_name="Diffusion Training: hidden_sizes=[1024, 1024, 1024, 1024] (300 steps), lr=0.0001, time_dim=8" task_name="Diffusion Training: hidden_sizes=[2048, 2048, 2048, 2048] (300 steps), lr=0.0001, time_dim=8"
) )
task.execute_remotely(queue_name="default", exit_process=True) task.execute_remotely(queue_name="default", exit_process=True)
@@ -42,7 +42,7 @@ print("Input dim: ", inputDim)
model_parameters = { model_parameters = {
"epochs": 15000, "epochs": 15000,
"learning_rate": 0.0001, "learning_rate": 0.0001,
"hidden_sizes": [1024, 1024, 1024, 1024], "hidden_sizes": [2048, 2048, 2048, 2048],
"time_dim": 8, "time_dim": 8,
} }