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Reports/Thesis/verslag.log
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Reports/Thesis/verslag.tex
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% TODO: Add more information about the imbalance price calculation, alpha?
TODO: Add more information about the imbalance price calculation, alpha?
The imbalance price can be reconstructed given the bids of a certain quarter / day and the System Imbalance. During this thesis, the system imbalance is assumed to be almost the same as the Net Regulation Volume. This is a simplification but it is a good approximation. The goal of this thesis is to model the Net Regulation Volume which can then be used to reconstruct the imbalance price and to make decisions on when to buy or sell electricity.
The imbalance price can be reconstructed given the bids of a certain quarter/day and the System Imbalance. During this thesis, the system imbalance is assumed to be almost the same as the Net Regulation Volume. This is a simplification but it is a good approximation. The goal of this thesis is to model the Net Regulation Volume which can then be used to reconstruct the imbalance price and to make decisions on when to buy or sell electricity.
\subsection{Generative modeling}
Simple forecasting of the NRV is often not accurate and defining a policy using this forecast will lead to wrong decisions. A better method would be to try to model the NRV and sample multiple generations of the NRV. This gives a better prediction and confidence intervals can be calculated from this.
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Generative modeling is a type of machine learning that is used to generate new data samples. The goal of generative modeling is to learn the true data distribution of the training data. From this learned distribution, new samples can be generated. Generative modeling is used in many different fields including image generation, text generation etc.
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TODO: Formulas of generative modeling
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In this thesis, generative modeling can be used to model the NRV of the Belgian electricity market using different input features like the weather, the electricity price etc. The model can then be used to generate new samples of the NRV.
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Multiple methods can be used to generatively model the NRV.
\section{Literature Study}